United States
Mexico
United States – Mexico
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 4, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: United States 3-0 Mexico. The model predicted a win for United States (39 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for United States and 1.31 for Mexico. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, United States took 9 points and Mexico 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for United States, 0 draws, 2 wins for Mexico. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1United States | 2.75 | 34 % | +6.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | +0.1 % |
| 2Mexico | 2.35 | 40 % | -19.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
United States
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mexico
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- United States
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Mexico
- United States1-2Mexico
- Mexico2-0United States
- Mexico0-2United States
- United States3-0Mexico
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of United States – Mexico?
Final score: United States 3-0 Mexico. The model predicted a win for United States (39 %): correct prediction.
Who will win United States – Mexico?
Our model gives 1 · United States a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: United States win 39 %, draw 27 %, Mexico win 34 %.