Argentina
Burkina Faso
Argentina – Burkina Faso
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 79 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.64 – 0.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Argentina at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.64 goals for Argentina and 0.65 for Burkina Faso. Bookmakers say the same thing: 82 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Argentina took 12 points and Burkina Faso 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentina | 1.15 | 82 % | -9.0 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +1.8 % |
| 2Burkina Faso | 21.00 | 4 % | +32.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Argentina
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burkina Faso
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Argentina – Burkina Faso?
Our model gives 1 · Argentina a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Argentina win 79 %, draw 15 %, Burkina Faso win 6 %.
What is the most likely score for Argentina – Burkina Faso?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.