Botafogo-SP
Vila Nova
Botafogo-SP – Vila Nova
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.20 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Botafogo-SP at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.20 goals for Botafogo-SP and 1.14 for Vila Nova. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Botafogo-SP took 4 points and Vila Nova 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Botafogo-SP, 1 draw, 2 wins for Vila Nova. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo-SP | 2.40 | 39 % | -8.5 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 31 % | -16.0 % |
| 2Vila Nova | 3.10 | 30 % | +3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Botafogo-SP
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vila Nova
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Botafogo-SP
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Vila Nova
- Vila Nova1-0Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP2-0Vila Nova
- Vila Nova2-0Botafogo-SP
- Vila Nova1-1Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP1-0Vila Nova
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Botafogo-SP – Vila Nova?
Our model gives 1 · Botafogo-SP a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Botafogo-SP win 38 %, draw 28 %, Vila Nova win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Botafogo-SP – Vila Nova?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.