Atlético-MG
Red Bull Bragantino
Atlético-MG – Red Bull Bragantino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.37 – 1.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético-MG at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.37 goals for Atlético-MG and 1.23 for Red Bull Bragantino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlético-MG took 7 points and Red Bull Bragantino 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Atlético-MG, 1 draw, 2 wins for Red Bull Bragantino. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético-MG | 2.05 | 45 % | -15.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -4.0 % |
| 2Red Bull Bragantino | 3.40 | 27 % | +3.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Red Bull Bragantino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Atlético-MG
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Red Bull Bragantino
- Atlético-MG2-2Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino0-1Atlético-MG
- Red Bull Bragantino1-0Atlético-MG
- Red Bull Bragantino2-0Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG2-1Red Bull Bragantino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético-MG – Red Bull Bragantino?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético-MG a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético-MG win 41 %, draw 28 %, Red Bull Bragantino win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético-MG – Red Bull Bragantino?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.