Atlético Tucumán
Barracas Central
Atlético Tucumán – Barracas Central
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 31 %
- Both teams to score
- 39 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético Tucumán at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.10 goals for Atlético Tucumán and 0.86 for Barracas Central. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, Atlético Tucumán took 5 points and Barracas Central 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Atlético Tucumán, 0 draws, 1 win for Barracas Central. Over 2.5 goals: 31 %. Both teams to score: 39 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Tucumán | 1.90 | 49 % | -23.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | +3.3 % |
| 2Barracas Central | 4.40 | 21 % | +14.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlético Tucumán
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Barracas Central
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Atlético Tucumán
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Barracas Central
- Barracas Central2-1Atlético Tucumán
- Barracas Central0-2Atlético Tucumán
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Tucumán – Barracas Central?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético Tucumán a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Tucumán win 40 %, draw 34 %, Barracas Central win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Tucumán – Barracas Central?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.