Defensa y Justicia
San Lorenzo
Defensa y Justicia – San Lorenzo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 0.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Defensa y Justicia at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 0.88 for San Lorenzo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Defensa y Justicia took 10 points and San Lorenzo 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Defensa y Justicia, 1 draw, 0 wins for San Lorenzo. Over 2.5 goals: 36 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Defensa y Justicia | 2.10 | 44 % | -7.2 % |
| XDraw | 2.90 | 32 % | -8.9 % |
| 2San Lorenzo | 3.95 | 24 % | -3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Defensa y Justicia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
San Lorenzo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Defensa y Justicia
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo2-5Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-0San Lorenzo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Defensa y Justicia – San Lorenzo?
Our model gives 1 · Defensa y Justicia a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Defensa y Justicia win 44 %, draw 31 %, San Lorenzo win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Defensa y Justicia – San Lorenzo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.