Avaí
Ceará
Avaí – Ceará
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Avaí 0-1 Ceará. The model predicted a win for Avaí (38 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.22 goals for Avaí and 1.16 for Ceará. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Avaí took 1 point and Ceará 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Avaí, 0 draws, 3 wins for Ceará. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Avaí | 2.55 | 37 % | -3.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -6.6 % |
| 2Ceará | 2.90 | 33 % | -7.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Avaí
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ceará
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Avaí
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Ceará
- Ceará2-1Avaí
- Ceará2-0Avaí
- Avaí0-1Ceará
- Avaí1-0Ceará
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Avaí – Ceará?
Final score: Avaí 0-1 Ceará. The model predicted a win for Avaí (38 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Avaí – Ceará?
Our model gives 1 · Avaí a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Avaí win 38 %, draw 30 %, Ceará win 32 %.