Switzerland
Slovenia
Switzerland – Slovenia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 75 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.37 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Switzerland at home (75 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.37 goals for Switzerland and 0.68 for Slovenia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 70 %. Over their last five matches, Switzerland took 10 points and Slovenia 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Switzerland, 1 draw, 0 wins for Slovenia. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Switzerland | 1.32 | 70 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | -20.1 % |
| 2Slovenia | 8.50 | 11 % | -31.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Switzerland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Slovenia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Switzerland
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Slovenia
- Slovenia0-0Switzerland
- Switzerland3-0Slovenia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Switzerland – Slovenia?
Our model gives 1 · Switzerland a 75 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Switzerland win 75 %, draw 17 %, Slovenia win 8 %.
What is the most likely score for Switzerland – Slovenia?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.