Canada
Peru
Canada – Peru
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 2-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.16 – 0.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Canada at home (74 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.16 goals for Canada and 0.66 for Peru. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Canada took 9 points and Peru 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Canada, 0 draws, 0 wins for Peru. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Canada | 1.58 | 59 % | +16.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -31.6 % |
| 2Peru | 5.50 | 17 % | -53.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Canada
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Peru
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Canada
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Peru
- Peru0-1Canada
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Canada – Peru?
Our model gives 1 · Canada a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Canada win 74 %, draw 18 %, Peru win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Canada – Peru?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.