Iceland
Bulgaria
Iceland – Bulgaria
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.98 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria. The model predicted a win for Iceland (63 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.98 goals for Iceland and 0.91 for Bulgaria. Bookmakers say the same thing: 66 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Iceland took 5 points and Bulgaria 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Iceland | 1.40 | 66 % | -12.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Bulgaria | 7.00 | 13 % | +15.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Iceland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bulgaria
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Iceland – Bulgaria?
Final score: Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria. The model predicted a win for Iceland (63 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Iceland – Bulgaria?
Our model gives 1 · Iceland a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Iceland win 63 %, draw 21 %, Bulgaria win 17 %.