Estonia
Luxembourg
Estonia – Luxembourg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.07 – 1.30
The short version
Final score: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg. The model predicted a win for Luxembourg (44 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.07 goals for Estonia and 1.30 for Luxembourg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, Estonia took 6 points and Luxembourg 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estonia | 2.90 | 32 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 2.90 | 32 % | -18.3 % |
| 2Luxembourg | 2.50 | 37 % | +9.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Estonia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Luxembourg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Estonia – Luxembourg?
Final score: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg. The model predicted a win for Luxembourg (44 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Estonia – Luxembourg?
Our model gives 2 · Luxembourg a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estonia win 28 %, draw 28 %, Luxembourg win 44 %.