Croatia
England
Croatia – England
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.20 – 1.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards England away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.20 goals for Croatia and 1.66 for England. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Croatia took 9 points and England 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Croatia, 0 draws, 1 win for England. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Croatia | 3.80 | 24 % | -5.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | -8.3 % |
| 2England | 1.80 | 51 % | -8.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Croatia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
England
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Croatia
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- England
- England4-2Croatia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Croatia – England?
Our model gives 2 · England a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Croatia win 25 %, draw 24 %, England win 51 %.
What is the most likely score for Croatia – England?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.