Almería
Burgos
Almería – Burgos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 0.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Almería at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Almería and 0.93 for Burgos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Almería took 12 points and Burgos 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Almería, 1 draw, 2 wins for Burgos. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Almería | 1.60 | 58 % | -21.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +15.0 % |
| 2Burgos | 5.25 | 18 % | +9.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Almería
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Almería
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Burgos
- Burgos0-0Almería
- Almería1-2Burgos
- Burgos3-1Almería
- Almería2-0Burgos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Almería – Burgos?
Our model gives 1 · Almería a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Almería win 49 %, draw 30 %, Burgos win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Almería – Burgos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.