Albacete
Eibar
Albacete – Eibar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.20 – 1.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Eibar away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.20 goals for Albacete and 1.34 for Eibar. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Albacete took 1 point and Eibar 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Albacete, 1 draw, 3 wins for Eibar. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albacete | 2.70 | 35 % | -13.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | +0.6 % |
| 2Eibar | 2.50 | 37 % | -6.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Albacete
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eibar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Albacete
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Eibar
- Albacete0-3Eibar
- Eibar3-2Albacete
- Eibar1-1Albacete
- Albacete0-1Eibar
- Albacete2-1Eibar
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Albacete – Eibar?
Our model gives 2 · Eibar a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Albacete win 32 %, draw 30 %, Eibar win 38 %.
What is the most likely score for Albacete – Eibar?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.