Colombia
Paraguay
Colombia – Paraguay
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 2, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 70 %
- Most likely score
- 2-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.02 – 0.68
The short version
Final score: Colombia 0-1 Paraguay. The model predicted a win for Colombia (70 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.02 goals for Colombia and 0.68 for Paraguay. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Colombia took 9 points and Paraguay 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Colombia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Paraguay. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Colombia | 1.71 | 55 % | +19.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -26.9 % |
| 2Paraguay | 4.90 | 19 % | -50.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Colombia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paraguay
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Colombia
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Paraguay
- Colombia2-2Paraguay
- Colombia2-1Paraguay
- Paraguay0-1Colombia
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Colombia – Paraguay?
Final score: Colombia 0-1 Paraguay. The model predicted a win for Colombia (70 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Colombia – Paraguay?
Our model gives 1 · Colombia a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Colombia win 70 %, draw 20 %, Paraguay win 10 %.